Invest-Indikator” trade fair points to sell –
The Invest trade fair on 26/27 April in Stuttgart was very well attended with over 13,000 visitors and 137 exhibitors. There were 250 programme items at the trade fair, with trading strategies and new trends on the crypto markets being in particularly high demand. However, interest in equities also appears to be increasing among German investors. There were many interesting investment topics at the Freedom Broker stand, where Mick Knauff, among others, also whetted the appetite for shares again.
As in the previous year, the stock markets in Eastern Europe performed particularly well this year, clearly outperforming the DAX. As in the previous year, blue chips from Kazakhstan rose the most, with the KTX Local Index up 30 per cent. Shares from Kazakhstan therefore now offer a good alternative to Russian shares, which are no longer tradable for Western investors due to the sanctions imposed on both sides. However, the Warsaw Stock Exchange is also increasingly taking centre stage for Western investors.
Risk-averse investors can buy shares from Kazakhstan directly online via the broker Freedom Finance (Freedom Broker) from Cyprus if they first open an account there, which is easy to do via the following link:
https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 . Although Russian ADR or original shares are still not tradable due to the sanctions, new opportunities may now arise again with some Russian ADR/GDR, which you can now buy at discount prices over the counter on the OTC market via the brokers Zerich Securities Ltd or Freedom Finance from Cyprus. However, you also need to open an account beforehand, which is easy to do at this link: https://trade.mind-money.eu
Andreas Männicke also gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 230 at www.YouTube.com.
Invest” trade fair in Stuttgart shows the way forward
There is still no euphoria after the good start to the stock market this year in the first quarter and the very good stock market year 2023. But based on the very good visitor numbers at the “Invest” trade fair, there is cause for concern about a strong correction. The Freedom Broker and Freedom Finance stand, where various speakers presented their investment strategies, was also very well attended. Well-known presenters Mick Knauff and Jürgen Schmitt from “Aktienlust” really whetted the appetite for shares during their highly entertaining presentations at the “Invest” trade fair at the Freedom Broker stand. The well-known Welt TV presenter Knauff was also celebrating his birthday at the fair, which made his smoky voice even more impressive.
Stephan Wolf, the director of the Aktien-Akademie (www.aktien-akademie.de ), who is very well known on the Internet, not only put everyone in a good mood with his presentations on how to find the bottom of shares, but also as an almost unbeatable table footballer at the Freedom Broker stand, which was a good fit for the upcoming European Football Championship in June. Wolf, who comes from Bochum and is passionate about shares, was after all the individual world champion in the table football tournament in 2014. No investor was able to beat him at the Freedom Broker stand over two days, but the stock markets in Eastern Europe also proved to be almost unbeatable this year and last year, as Andreas Männicke emphasised at the Freedom Broker stand with his presentation “New investment opportunities in Eastern Europe, especially in Kazakhstan”. His motto therefore remains “Go East!”
However, it is usually the case that when financial trade fairs such as “Invest” are very full and well attended, shares correct sharply afterwards due to profit-taking and external events. The very accurate “trade fair invest indicator” is therefore set to “sell”. This corresponds well with the old stock market rule “Sell on May and go away”. In any case, the air to the upside is now getting thinner and thinner, incidentally also for commodities, which also performed very well until the end of April, as did cryptocurrencies. On the last trading day in April, however, shares, bonds, commodities such as oil, gold, silver, copper and cryptocurrencies fell sharply across the board. However, the Fear & Greed Index immediately jumped from “Greed” to “Feer”, which now gives hope that the correction will not be too strong and will not last too long.
Seasonal cycle is not unimportant, risks are increasing
In fact, in recent decades, share prices in the period from October to April have performed significantly better on average than share prices in the period from May to September. Investors should therefore base their investment behaviour more on the usual seasonal cycle and therefore invest more in liquidity now. At the “Invest” trade fair, there were very different opinions on the further development in various presentations. There are some uncertainty factors such as the future monetary policy of the FED and ECB, although almost everyone agreed that the ECB will cut interest rates before the FED.
When will the wars in Israel and Ukraine finally come to an end?
However, it is also questionable when the wars in Israel and Ukraine will end or whether they can escalate further. A ceasefire would be the order of the day right now, but politicians with a lack of understanding and obsession with power, some of them even corrupt, do not care about the welfare of the people and are unnecessarily prolonging the war, which will cost the lives of many young soldiers. In the Ukraine war, Russia is now slowly advancing without making a breakthrough anywhere. The situation for Ukraine is becoming increasingly unfavourable due to a lack of ammunition and soldiers, which the USD 60 billion from the USA will not do much to change. In June, investors will also be captivated by the European Football Championship in Germany, but this will mean that stock market liquidity will decrease in June. In addition, the European elections are now on the horizon, where there may be a shift to the right.
“Big correction” or “great rotation” or both?
The reporting season, which is now starting, will shed light on which companies are looking positively and which less positively into the future. Although the future of the 7 “magic technology stocks” appears to be rosy, disappointments can quickly occur here too, as we can already see from the examples of Nvidia and Tesla. There could be a “big correction” here, incidentally also in commodities and cryptocurrencies, but also a “great rotation” in the sense that the large technology stocks will correct and with them the indices, but there will be a renaissance of small and mid-caps that previously received little attention, especially in the commodities sector. In the near future, companies with strong earnings and dividends, such as utilities and healthcare stocks, are more likely to be sought after. Dividends will now play an increasingly important role, with DAX companies paying out the highest dividends of all time.
Supply deficits lead to rising commodity prices
At the commodities night at the “Invest” trade fair on 26 April, Jochen Staiger and Prof. Thorsten Dennin once again drew attention to the ongoing supply deficits in the commodities sector, which caused industrial and precious metals to soar in April. It remains to be seen whether this heralds a new super cycle for commodities. After the strong price increase in April and new all-time highs for gold, a correction is now more likely due, also for gold and silver. If you want to bet on a further rise in oil prices, you should also keep an eye on the very low valued Canadian oil company Saturn Oil & Gas, which also presented itself again at “Invest”. The company now produces 27,000 barrels/day at very low production costs.
Go East: Eastern European stock markets as clear outperformers!
Investors can achieve even higher dividends in Eastern Europe than with DAX companies. On average, Eastern European shares are considerably cheaper than Western companies and also pay out higher dividends. 10 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe are once again among the 30 best stock exchanges in the world, led by Kazakhstan with a plus of 30% and followed by the stock exchanges from Serbia (+16%), Bulgaria (+11%), Hungary (+10%), Romania (+10%), Slovenia (+10%), Russia (+9.7%), the Czech Republic (+7.5%), Poland (+6.3%) and Croatia (+5.3%), with 8 even outperforming the DAX (+6.9%) and S&P Index (+6.7%) by the end of April.
Warsaw Stock Exchange comes to the fore
The SETX index, an artificial product of the Vienna Stock Exchange for shares from the Balkans and south-east Europe, has already risen by 12%, far outperforming the DAX. The largest and most liquid stock exchange in Eastern Europe is the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which should also attract more attention from German investors now that shares on the Moscow Stock Exchange are closed to Western investors. The DAX was weighed down by Mercedes’ weak earnings figures on 30 April. It is therefore still worth taking a look at Eastern Europe.
Kazakhstan as a good alternative for Russian equities
Kazakhstan continues to show very good economic data such as GDP growth of over 4%, a low unemployment rate of 4.8% and a public debt ratio of just 23% of GDP. High-yielding and fast-growing companies from Kazakhstan include the banks Kaspi.kz and Halyk Bank, the largest uranium producer Kazatomprom and the oil stocks KazMunaiGaz. The Russian gold and silver producer Polymetal and the Russian consumer chain Fix Price have also already moved to the Astana International Stock Exchange. The airline Astana Airlines recently went public in Kazakhstan. The Bank of Georgia from Georgia continues to be a source of much joy.
Freedom Broker offers market access to Kazakhstan
You can also buy shares from Kazakhstan directly online via the broker Freedom Finance from Cyprus, which also presented itself at the Invest trade fair and attracted a lot of interest, which has the advantage that you can quickly receive the sometimes very high dividends in your securities account. Halyk Bank, for example, has a dividend yield of 16% and a return on equity of 34%. At Freedom Broker you also receive interest on your savings account in USD of over 8% and in euros of over 6%. You can easily open an account online at the following link: https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 If you need advice on exchanging Russian ADRs for original shares, Freedom Broker, which also has a branch in Berlin, is the best place to go.
However, investors can still buy Russian ADRs at discount prices in the OTC market via Freedom Broker. Similar opportunities are also available via the broker Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus, if you open an account via the following link: https://trade.mind-money.eu A list of tradable Russian ADR is published in the stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de). Both brokers also offer participation in lucrative IPOs on Wall Street as well as high returns on overnight and fixed-term deposits.
Inform first, then invest
Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic states, south-eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with the respective share indices all up in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with 5 clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024, 10 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe outperformed again with a strong gain. It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by e-mail for just €15) to the monthly stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend special as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Share of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, under Stock Market Letter. The last EST was published on 23 April 2024.
TV/radio notes: On 5 February 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Carola Ferstl on Money Talk about gold, commodities and the new opportunities in Eastern Europe. You can download all radio and TV interviews in the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the last video in EastStockTV, episode 220. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?
If you are interested in new EastStock seminars “Go East” in Frankfurt/m or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de )
You can also subscribe to Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news on the world and eastern stock markets at www.eaststock.de .