Will the Israel war be a “black swan” for the stock markets?

Monday, 23. October 2023

New opportunities in Eastern Europe, also in Kazakhstan and Russia -.

The Israeli war is keeping investors on tenterhooks. Investors are very unsettled and not exactly in a buying mood. Also at the Berlin Stock Exchange Day on 21 October in Berlin, where Andreas Männicke gave a lecture on the new opportunities in Eastern Europe at the invitation of Freedom Broker, the threatening large-scale offensive by the Israeli military was the dominant topic and some investors wondered whether the Israel conflict could become a “black swan” on the world stock exchanges if it were to expand into a conflagration in the Middle East. The world stock markets were already very weak last week. The chart technique is now also explosive. Is a crash now imminent?

While the Western stock markets tended to be weak, there were even new highs for the year on some stock markets in Eastern Europe. One of the top performers among the world’s stock exchanges is the Budapest Stock Exchange, which Andreas Männicke and some investors took a look at “on the spot” a few days ago together with globetrotter Swen Lorenz to sound out the opportunities in Hungary. The overall impression of the Hungarian companies was positive throughout. But new opportunities are now also opening up in Kazakhstan and even with Russian ADR in the OTC market.

Risk-averse investors can now purchase high-potential shares from Kazakhstan directly online via the broker Freedom Broker if they open an account beforehand, which is easily possible online at this link: https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 . Russian ADR or original shares are still not tradable due to the sanctions, but there could soon be new opportunities with Russian ADR, which you can now buy at discount prices via the broker Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus. Gold and silver producer Polymetal, for example, has already risen by over 50 per cent after being delisted on the London Stock Exchange and now made tradable on the AIX in Kazakhstan. Interesting stocks in the OTC market are above all the Russian discounter Fix Price, which has now also gone public in Kazakhstan, and the IT stock VKontakte (more on this in the new stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eastststok.de). However, you also need to open an account for this beforehand, which can be done easily under this link: https://trade.mind-money.eu.

Andreas Männicke also gives his views on the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in this unfriendly environment in his stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 219 at www.YouTube.com. Andreas Männicke will also give a lecture on this topic at the Hamburg Stock Exchange Day on 11 November in Hamburg.

It’s getting very bloody in Israel

Israel is now launching the major offensive on Gaza, first with bombs and later with ground forces and tanks, in response to the brutal terrorist attack by Hamas on 7 October, where over 1,000 people died and over 100 hostages were taken into custody, including old women and children who are now in great distress. There is no excuse for this terrorist attack – like any terrorist attack – but it has a long history that also needs to be discussed. It is questionable who fired the missiles at a hospital where hundreds of people died needlessly.

Politics has failed once again – and now?

The large-scale offensive announced by Israel a long time ago is politically very controversial because many innocent civilians in Palestine will also die as a result. The brutal terrorist attack by Hamas cannot be justified with anything and is inexcusable, but the big question is whether violence must always be answered with counter-violence. World politics, including the USA and Germany, failed in the run-up to the attack, and it is failing now, too, if one sides unilaterally with Israel without not only sharply criticising Israel’s settlement policy, but also imposing sanctions against Israel. The cutting off of electricity and water, which is directed against the civilian population of Palestine, is also inhumane and contradicts human rights. Every human being has the right to live in peace. Spain now wants to break off diplomatic relations with Israel because of Israel’s actions and possibly also withdraw from NATO.

Now a conflagration in the Middle East is imminent

In the event of a major offensive by the Israeli military and the occupation of the Gaza Strip, there is indeed the danger of a conflagration in the Middle East if some Arab countries and Iran subsequently join in the conflict. Then it could not only become very bloody, but the conflict could be transported to other Western countries through further terrorist attacks. The demonstrations in western cities, which have been relatively peaceful so far, could then also become very bloody.

Shares flop, oil and gold top

The world’s stock markets have already reacted with significant price drops in the past week and these could even intensify if the large-scale offensive with ground troops starts. The main beneficiaries of the conflict have been the oil and gold prices, which have risen significantly, so that some oil and gold shares in particular have also risen. For example, since 7 October, the price of gold has risen by 8.8 per cent from USD 1820 to USD 1980 and the price of crude oil by 9.5 per cent from USD 84 to USD 92 per barrel. To benefit from rising oil and gold prices, investors can buy the BNP Paribas oil and gold ETC.

Budapest is worth a trip – also for investors

However, there are now also new opportunities in Eastern Europe, with some stock exchanges from Eastern Europe even reaching new highs against the falling trend on the world stock exchanges. The Budapest Stock Exchange is particularly noteworthy here, with a number of attractive stocks. The globetrotter and expert of undervalued stocks Swen Lorenz recently organised a very interesting investor trip to Budapest in October, where fellow travellers were able to visit some attractive companies such as OTP Bank, Magyar Telekom, MOL and the Budapest Stock Exchange itself. Erste Bank and Bank Raiffeisen International, both also on the watch-list, gave a good overview of the political and economic situation in Hungary. The overall impression of the Hungarian companies was extremely positive despite the ongoing recession and still too high inflation in Hungary.

Paprika into the portfolio with Hungarian shares (+37%!)

Far too few German investors take the opportunity to combine the pleasant with the useful and visit the very beautiful cities in Eastern Europe such as Budapest, Warsaw and Prague to inform themselves “on the spot”, although this is proverbially obvious and profitable. The conclusion of Andreas Männicke’s trip is: “Go east and keep taking “Hungarian paprika” to spice up your portfolio”. But here, too, a correction would be welcome, because the HTX index for Hungarian shares has already risen by 37 percent and is now close to its high for the year. But the Warsaw stock exchange also rose by more than 10 per cent after the opposition’s election victory last week, so that an 8 per cent gain in Poland’s PTX index has now become a 19 per cent gain. But the whole Balkan region is also very interesting, with many Balkan countries now wanting to join the EU.

Stocks from Southeast Europe are booming

The SETX index for shares from Southeast Europe has already risen by 18 percent. Romania is particularly promising. But Georgia may also be granted EU candidate status in December. Irrespective of this, the Bank of Georgia remains very promising even after reaching new all-time highs. The DAX only gained a meagre 5 per cent on 20 October. The DAX fell by 1.6 per cent to 14,797 index points on Friday and is now still in danger of crashing.

New opportunities in Kazakhstan: +28 per cent!

New opportunities are now opening up in Kazakhstan, however, with the KTX index already up 28 percent (38 percent at its high) this year. The two stock exchanges in Kazakhstan will soon merge into one to generate more liquidity on the home exchange. Most turnover of shares from Kazakhstan is still done on the London Stock Exchange. Interesting stocks here are in particular the dynamically growing fintech bank Kaspi.kz and the uranium producer Kazatomprom.

Bargain prices for Russian ADR in the OTC market; Buy!

More and more companies from Russia now want to switch to the stock exchange in Kazakhstan, as Polymetal did before, in order to be tradable there for Western investors again. After Polymetal, the Russian discounter Fix Price has now also switched to the Kazakhstan stock exchange and can be bought there for less than 3 USD, while the price on the Moscow stock exchange is the equivalent of more than 4 USD. You can now also buy 10 other Russian ADRs at discount prices of over 50 per cent in some cases in the OTC market via Zerich Securities Ltd or Freedom Broker, which have similar considerations to Polymetal and Fix Price. This should pay off for investors in the medium term. However, you must first open an account either with Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus via the link https://trade.mind-money.eu or with Freedom Finance via the link https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896.

First inform, then invest

Inform yourself now in detail about the background and the development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis but also about the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, Southeast Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), whereby the respective stock indices were all up in 2023. In 2023 year, 10 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best performing stock markets in the world, with 9 clearly outperforming the DAX. So it is still worthwhile to look beyond Eastern Europe after the Ukraine war.

Order now a trial subscription (3 issues by e-mail for only 15 €) of the monthly stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend special as well as with a lot of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Stock of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, there under Stock Letter. The last EST was published on 29 September 2023.

TV/radio notes: The next radio interview on Börsen Radio Networks is on 2 October 2023, but also note the new interview by Marco Fröleke with Andreas Männicke about the new investment opportunities in Eastern Europe on his You-Tube channel “Die Zeitenwende” from 28 September 2023. You can download all radio and TV interviews in the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the last video on EastStockTV. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?

Lecture notes: Andreas Männicke will give a lecture on “New Opportunities in Eastern Europe, especially in Kazakhstan” at the Hamburg Stock Exchange Day on 11 November 2023 in Hamburg.

If you are interested in new East Stock Exchange “Go East” seminars in Frankfurt/m or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de ).


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EST Stock market letter

The stock exchanges of Central and Eastern Europe have been among the top performers among the world’s stock exchanges since 1998. In recent years in particular, many CEE stock exchanges have performed far better than the established Western stock exchanges. In 2019, for example, the Moscow Stock Exchange not only clearly outperformed the DAX and DJI, but also ranked among the 30 best-performing stock exchanges in the world.

Many investors have so far criminally neglected the CEE stock exchanges. Yet the selection of promising stocks is growing. Eastern Europe still has its future ahead of it.

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