- Kazakhstan as a good alternative for Russia –
NATO’s largest air manoeuvre, “Air Defender”, will start on 12 June, causing considerable delays in air traffic. The exercise will be rehearsed with many NATO countries in the event that Russia attacks a NATO country. Meanwhile, the real (proxy) war is raging in Ukraine. Selinskyi is on the attack and is now launching a major offensive. But this also increases the potential for escalation now in summer, as the blowing up of the dam near Kherson already indicates. The grain agreement with Ukraine could be terminated in 1 month, which would cause wheat prices to rise again Ex-NATO chief Rasmussen now even recommends sending NATO soldiers to the war zone. Poland would be ready to do so immediately. Fighter jets are also to be sent to Ukraine in the autumn. The more NATO gets actively involved in the Ukraine war, the greater the danger that “Air Defender” will become reality and we will all suddenly find ourselves in World War 3.
So far, the world’s stock markets are taking this very calmly and hardly reacting at all. However, this may change in the summer months, especially since the monetary policy of the central banks will then be put to the test. The Eastern European stock markets once again performed very well in the first half of the year. A third of the 30 best-performing stock exchanges in the world come from Eastern Europe and some even outperformed the DAX. A good alternative to Russian shares, which are neither tradable abroad nor for foreigners on the Moscow stock exchange because of the sanctions, are now shares from Kazakhstan, where the Russian gold and silver producer Polymetal is now also listed on the Kazakhstan stock exchange. The brokers Zerich Securities Ltd and Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) from Cyprus make it possible to buy Polymetal at rock-bottom prices if you open an account there now (for Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus under the link https://trade.mind-money.eu and for Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) under the link https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896. Both brokers can also help you if Russian shares become tradable again or if you still have questions about Russian ADR and receiving dividends.
Will the big NATO manoeuvre “Air Defender” soon become reality?
On 12 June, the large NATO flight manoeuvre “Air Defender” will start, where the case of assistance, if you will, the 3rd World War will be rehearsed. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is going into the next round with the planned large-scale offensive in Ukraine. In the process, there is now further potential for escalation. Who blew up the dam near Kherson is now to be investigated. For the time being, however, most of the Western media are always blaming Putin, which was already a mistake with the Northern Pipeline and turned into a boomerang. It is possible that the German government even knew about the blowing up of the Northern Pipeline by Ukraine via secret services, which would have to be clarified by a committee of enquiry.
Grain agreement could be terminated
In addition, there is now a danger that the grain agreement will be terminated by the Russians if the ammonia pipeline, which is important for Russia, is not reopened. The reopening is at least the condition of the Russians. If the grain agreement is terminated, wheat prices are likely to rise sharply again, and many emerging countries in Africa would suffer. Most African countries are therefore on the Russian side, not only South Africa.
The Ukrainian major offensive has started – and now?
In any case, there will now be a major battle of soldiers and material in the summer as part of Ukraine’s major offensive, whereby the losses for Ukraine will probably be greater than for Russia. Many German Leopard tanks have already been destroyed by the Russians or are stuck in the mud. It would be better now to follow the peace initiative of the BRICS and bring about a ceasefire before the war escalates even further. If Ukraine succeeds in advancing to the Crimea, Putin will respond with modern weapons with an even greater destructive force such as the new supersonic missiles. If Poland and NATO become too militarily direct, the danger of a 3rd world war will increase abruptly. Western politicians do not seem to be aware of this danger. On the contrary, in autumn even fighter jets are to be delivered, which are now also being used in the large NATO manoeuvre “Air Defender”.
Central banks remain in focus in June
The world’s stock markets have so far taken these dangers very calmly and are (still) trending stably sideways. Nevertheless, they may now fall into a summer slump. The next interest rate decision by the Fed and, above all, its outlook will be decisive. At the moment, the market is rather assuming an interest rate pause in the summer. If further interest rate hikes are envisaged at the next FED meeting, the stock markets are likely to fall sharply. Inflation rates are now falling worldwide, but remain at a very high level, also due to the wage-price spiral.
The ECB will have to raise interest rates further in any case because inflation rates in the euro area are much higher than in the US. The price of gas in the US has plummeted by almost 80 per cent and is now even lower than before the war. Oil prices have fallen by almost 40 per cent in 1 year. Therefore, inflation rates should continue to fall, especially since the industrial metals are also weakening. The next economic data in the EU, the USA and above all in China in the summer will be crucial. In the event of a recession, demand concerns are likely to predominate and commodity prices will fall. Gold/silver are also not budging at the moment because of interest rate fears. Even cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum are only trending sideways. But there is something in the air everywhere.
Artificial intelligence as a growth driver only for a few teck shares
In principle, all investors can be very satisfied with the performance in the first half of the year. However, there are big differences. Only those large tech stocks that want to develop something with artificial intelligence ((AI) were in demand. However, it will be interesting to see how long the hype with AI stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia will last. Most small and mid caps were little in demand and are not getting off the ground. The NASDAQ index rose to 13,259 index points on Friday and with already up 27.65 per cent while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was up only 2.2 per cent to 33,878 index points. Japan is also doing very well with the Nikkei index up 25.46 per cent since the beginning of the year. Inflation rates in Asia are much lower than in western industrialised countries.
Continued good outperformance opportunities in Eastern Europe
Investors in Eastern Europe also have good outperformance opportunities. The CECE index, which includes Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, has already risen by 19 percent since the beginning of the year, which is more than the DAX with a plus of “only” 13.37 percent. Above all, the shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange were able to make clear gains. The PTX index for Polish shares rose by 21.19 per cent in euros, whereby there were also high currency gains here as well as in Hungary. However, investors should now also look out for shares from Georgia and Kazakhstan, with Bank of Georgia still offering opportunities after the correction.
Polymetal now tradable again as a “bargain” via Zerich Securities Ltd and Freedom Broker
Polymetal, a major gold and silver producer, is now tradable in Kazakhstan, with the shares to be delisted on the London Stock Exchange. Via the brokers Zerich Securities and Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) you can now buy the shares very cheaply, although the planned delisting from the London Stock Exchange is still a burden. A share split is to take place later. The recovery potential later after the move to Kazakhstan is enormous. Therefore, open an account now with Zerich Securities Ltd. under the link https://trade.mind-money.eu and for Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) under the link https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896. Both brokers can also help you if Russian shares become tradable again.
First inform, then invest
But there are also new opportunities in Eastern Europe in general, where there are always outperformance opportunities. Inform yourself now in detail about the background and the development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis but also about the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltics, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Ukraine.
Review: In 2018, 10 stock markets from Eastern Europe were among the best performing stock markets in the world, all clearly outperforming the DAX and also the US stock market. The Moscow Stock Exchange was the clear outperformer among all world stock markets in 2019, with a gain of over 46 per cent in euro terms. But also the Bucharest Stock Exchange (Romania) already rose by over 32 percent in 2019 2020 year, 6 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best performing stock markets in the world and last year even 11 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe. Among them, shares in Kazakhstan rose by over 80 per cent in 2021. Last year, 5 Eastern European stock exchanges, mainly from the Balkans, clearly outperformed the DAX, and this year there are already 12 Eastern European stock exchanges among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world. The PTX index for shares from Poland has already risen by 21 percent this year, the BTX index for shares from Bulgaria by over 16 percent and the CROX index for shares from Croatia by 15 percent. So even after the Ukraine war, it is still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order now a trial subscription (3 issues by e-mail for only 15 €) of the monthly stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend/bond special as well as with lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as with the “Stock of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, there under Stock Letter. The next EST will be published in June 2023 with a special on Kazakhstan and Russian ADR/Russia.
TV/radio notes: The last radio interview was on 2 March 2023 and previously on 31 October on Börsen Radio Networks. The next radio interview is on 2 October 2023 Stock Exchange Radio Networks. Also watch the latest EastStockTV video on YouTube about the Ukraine war and the new outperformance opportunities for Eastern European stock markets. You can download the interviews and videos at www.eaststock.de, there under the heading “Interviews” as well as the videos of EastStockTV. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?