- Polymetal with good opportunities
On 24 June, there was an internal power struggle and confrontation between the feared Wagner group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership. A bloodbath and open confrontation in Moscow could only be avoided by President Lukashenko giving in and ordering Prigozhin to withdraw. However, Prigozhin showed how vulnerable the Russian system is and also what weaknesses the military leadership has. This should give Putin food for thought for a long time to come. Ukraine, meanwhile, reported gains in terrain on a day when Russia was preoccupied with itself. Nevertheless, the Ukraine war continues with unabated ferocity and with it the unnecessary deaths of soldiers on both sides.
The stock exchanges have not yet been able to react to the events and, due to the withdrawal from the Wagner Group, they will not have any impact. Investors in Eastern Europe in particular can be very satisfied with the first half of the year. The Warsaw stock exchange was the best performer with a plus of 20.61 percent on the Polish PTX index, which even did far better than the DAX with a plus of 12.51 percent. New opportunities are now also opening up in Kazakhstan with the Russian gold and silver producer Polymetal.
The brokers Zerich Securities Ltd and Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) from Cyprus make it possible to buy polymetal at rock bottom prices if you open an account there now (for Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus under the link https://trade.mind-money.eu and for Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) under the link https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896. Both brokers can also help you if Russian shares become tradable again or if you still have questions about Russian ADR and receiving dividends.
Andreas Männicke also gives his views on the new opportunities in his stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 213 at www.YouTube.com.
Prigozhin reveals the weaknesses of the Russian military
5000 mercenaries of the Wagner Group set off heavily armed for Moscow on 24 June, having already taken the militarily important city of Rostov without resistance from the Russian military. The trigger for this insane action was the alleged shelling of the Wagner group in the field camps by the Russian military, where some mercenaries also died. Prigozhin wanted to take revenge for this and wanted to destroy everything that stood in his way.
Even before that, he constantly criticised the Russian military leadership for not providing enough air support and ammunition. Allegedly, 1000 Russian soldiers die every day at the front because of “failure to provide assistance”. The criticism was initially directed only at Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has been in office since 2014 and has rendered outstanding services to Putin in the Syrian war.
Russian military leadership sharply criticised by Prigozhin
But his criticism is also directed at Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who had taken over the post from then Commander of the Russian Armed Forces Sergei Surovikin since January 2023. Surovikin addressed Prigozhin directly in a video message, saying that he should immediately end his campaign of “justice” and submit to Putin’s orders. His action only played into the hands of the real enemy, whom they must fight together side by side. Even if the conflict now ended without bloodshed, this is likely to have consequences for Putin and the military leadership.
Power struggle called off – and now?
The Ukraine war, however, is obviously not going according to plan because of strong resistance from Ukraine and the Western alliance and is now taking much longer than initially thought. The longer it goes on, however, the more difficult it becomes for Putin to keep his hands on the reins. Apparently, some military units wanted to join the Wagner Group, which could have led to a change of power. In the future, this could now lead to even more repression in Russia, because the war almost reached Moscow. Putin still enjoys broad support in the country, but such a militant as Prigozhin could have made life difficult for him.
Wagner group must regroup
A bloodbath was avoided by the president from Belarus Lukashenko negotiating with Prigozhin for a day and persuading him to retreat. Prigozhin and his mercenaries were given security guarantees and immunity from prosecution, though Putin must now already be worried about what will happen next on the front. Prigozhin himself is allowed to leave for Belarus. One may wonder what Lukashenko was thinking and to what extent Prigozhin could now be useful for Lukashenko in the future to do some “dirty work”. The Wagner Group was also to be formally placed under the direction of the Russian Ministry of Defence through contracts as of 1 July, which Prigozhin has so far refused to do. Now it is likely that at least parts of the Wagner Group will be formally integrated into the Russian military.
Ukraine reports land gains at the front for the first time
Meanwhile, the fighters at the front continue with undiminished ferocity. Ukraine was able to report its first land gains and thus seized the opportunity. However, nothing has been decided yet and the senseless war is likely to continue for a long time. The peace plan of the Chinese and some African countries, who recently visited Putin, is not being heard in the West. According to most Western politicians, the war is to be won on the battlefield. However, more and more weapons, such as soon also uranium-containing tank ammunition, medium-range missiles and fighter jets, almost inevitably provoke only more deaths and further stages of escalation, which could even end up in a third world war. However, some Western politicians do not seem to be aware of this responsibility.
Warsaw Stock Exchange as Top Performer
The stock markets have not been able to react to the dramatic events in Russia so far because it was the weekend. They will not rule in this respect either, since Prigozhin and his Wagner Group have already withdrawn. The stock markets will only react positively when there are signs of an end to the war, which is not yet the case.
After the very good first half of the year, corrections are now to be expected in the second half anyway because of the restrictive monetary policy of the central banks and the weak economy. The Eastern European stock exchanges have developed particularly positively so far. 10 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe are already among the 30 best-performing stock exchanges in the world, led by the Warsaw Stock Exchange with a plus of more than 20 percent on the PTX index, while the DAX “only” achieved a plus of 12 percent. Especially video game producers like CI-Games and CD-Projekt are now making a splash with new offerings. But shares from Croatia have also already gained 20 per cent since the beginning of the year.
New opportunities in Kazakhstan with Polymetal
Good opportunities are now opening up in Kazakhstan, which does not support the Ukraine war and now also supplies oil to Germany. A special “bargain” is the Russian gold and silver producer Polymetal, which was previously only conditionally tradable for a few brokers on the London Stock Exchange because of the sanctions. However, the company has now switched from the London Stock Exchange to the AIX in Kazakhstan, where German investors can now buy the share at rock-bottom prices. Based on the former highs before the war, there are even tenbagger opportunities in the long term, i.e. the potential of 1000 per cent, or at least 100 per cent in the medium term. A detailed analysis of Polymetal can be found in the new stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS as the new “Stock of the Month”.
Zerich Securities Ltd and Freedom Broker from Cyprus can help
This is now possible via the two brokers Zerich Securities Ltd and Freedom Broker from Cyprus. But first you need to open an account with both brokers, which can be done quickly and easily online for Zerich Securities Ltd at the link https://trade.mind-money.eu and for Freedom Broker (Freedom Finance) at the link https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896. Both brokers can also help you if Russian shares become tradable again or if you still have questions about Russian ADR and receiving dividends.
First inform, then invest
But there are also new opportunities in Eastern Europe in general, where there are always outperformance opportunities. Inform yourself now in detail about the background and the development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis but also about the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Ukraine.
The PTX index for shares from Poland has already risen by 21 percent this year, the BTX index for shares from Bulgaria by over 12 percent and the CROX index for shares from Croatia by 20 percent. So even after the Ukraine war, it is still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order now a trial subscription (3 issues by e-mail for only 15 €) of the monthly stock exchange letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend/bond special as well as with a lot of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Stock of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, there under Stock Exchange Letter. The next EST will be published in June 2023 with a special on Kazakhstan and Russian ADR/Russia.
TV/radio notes: The last radio interview was on 2 March 2023 and previously on 31 October on Börsen Radio Networks. The next radio interview is on 2 October 2023 Stock Exchange Radio Networks. Also watch the latest EastStockTV video on YouTube about the Ukraine war and the new outperformance opportunities for Eastern European stock markets. You can download the interviews and videos at www.eaststock.de, there under the heading “Interviews” as well as the videos of EastStockTV. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?