Iran attacks Israel: Is there now a threat of a conflagration or even a 3rd world war?

Monday, 15. April 2024

Oil, gold and silver continue to soar, Bitcoin collapses –

The war with Israel is now threatening to escalate after Iran attacked Israel for the first time on the night of 13 to 14 April with around 300 missiles such as drones and rockets. However, almost all of the missiles were intercepted and destroyed beforehand, which was a success for the Israeli air defence, with the help of American and British aircraft.

The attack by Iran was in turn a reaction to the shelling of the Iranian embassy in Damascus (Syria) on 1 April, for which Iran blamed Israel. Two high-ranking Iranian generals died in the attack. What matters now is how Israel will react to the Iranian attack. The US, China and Russia are urging restraint, although in an emergency the US would stand by Israel and China, and Russia would stand by Iran.

Bitcoin fell sharply after the attack, dropping from 67,000 to 62,000 BTC/USD, but then recovered again. If Israel were to attack Iran again on a massive scale, share prices are likely to fall, as the Israel/Iran war could then escalate into a conflagration in the Middle East. On the other hand, gold, silver and oil are likely to rise. In turn, Russia and Kazakhstan would benefit from higher gold and oil prices.

Until Friday, the global stock markets had reacted relatively calmly to the new risks of escalation in the war in Israel and Ukraine. The indices on Wall Street and the DAX had previously reached new all-time highs, but corrected somewhat last week. However, the stock markets in Eastern Europe were also a source of much joy up to that point, especially the shares from Kazakhstan and Georgia as new growth regions. Georgia is now even a new candidate for EU membership and, like Ukraine, is being courted by the EU. Kazakhstan is also benefiting from high oil prices as an oil exporting country.

The KTX index for shares from Kazakhstan even closed on 12 April with a plus of 17.65%, having already achieved a plus of 32% last year. It thus clearly outperformed the DAX. Risk-averse investors can buy Kazakhstani shares directly online via the broker Freedom Finance (Freedom Broker) from Cyprus if they open an account there first, which is easy to do at the following link: . Although Russian ADR or original shares are still not tradable due to the sanctions, new opportunities may now arise again with some Russian ADR/GDR, which you can now buy at discount prices on the OTC market via the brokers Zerich Securities Ltd or Freedom Finance from Cyprus. Interesting stocks on the OTC market are above all the Russian discounter Fix Price, which has now also gone public on the stock exchange in Kazakhstan, and the IT stocks VKontakte and Yandex (more on this in the stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS ( However, you also need to open an account beforehand, which is easy to do at this link:

Andreas Männicke also gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS ( and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 229 at Andreas Männicke will also be giving a presentation on “New opportunities in Eastern Europe, especially in Kazakhstan” at Freedom Broker’s stand 4C38 at “Invest” in Stuttgart on 26/27 April 2024.

Is there now a threat of a conflagration in the Middle East?

13/14 April was a black day for world peace after Iran attacked Israel for the first time in coordinated cooperation with the “proxies” (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen). If Israel were to respond massively to this attack with a counter-attack on Iran, there is a threat of a conflagration in the Middle East, which could even lead to a third world war if the Americans behave recklessly. The USA and the G7 would then support Israel, but China and Russia would clearly help Iran. At the very least, there is the threat of another proxy war between Israel and Iran, which could take on major dimensions.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt are already very concerned about the new situation, which could escalate quickly if Israel were to make tactical and strategic mistakes. However, the USA has already announced that it would not participate directly in an attack against Iran. China is also calling for de-escalation and restraint. It would be a major strategic mistake on Israel’s part if it were to respond with a military strike against Iran. After all, there were no casualties in Israel due to the good air defence, where American and British aircraft were also deployed. Only one girl was injured by a splinter.

Chancellor Scholz heard the news as he was flying over Kazakhstan at night to China, where Iran’s attack on Israel is likely to be an important topic of discussion. On Sunday afternoon, the G7 met for a telephone conference to agree on how the G7 countries should now behave. It was clear that they expressed their solidarity with Israel and strongly condemned the attack by Iran. But where were their critical statements towards Israel when two Iranian generals were deliberately murdered in the embassy in Syria?

Bitcoin down, gold/silver and oil up

Following Iran’s attack on Israel, Bitcoin reacted violently with a price slump from 67,000 to below 62,000 BTC/USD, but then recovered intraday to 64,000 BTC/USD on Sunday. Below 60,000 BTC/USD is a clear sell signal for Bitcoin, although the halving is now imminent. If there is a conflagration in the Middle East, which we all hope will not happen, gold, silver and oil are likely to benefit in particular and gold, silver and oil stocks are likely to rise accordingly, while the stock indices on the world’s stock exchanges are likely to fall sharply. By 12 April, the price of gold had already risen to USD 2342/ounce, silver to USD 28.03/ounce and Brent oil to USD 90.28/barrel, which was close to its highs for the year. The Canadian oil producer Saturn Oil & Gas is a highly undervalued oil share, which recently recovered somewhat from €1.7 to €1.95.

Russia and Kazakhstan benefit from high export oil prices

As oil-exporting countries, countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan are also likely to benefit from rising oil prices and Russia from rising gold prices, as the Russian central bank has recently bought up a lot of gold, as has the Chinese central bank. Both countries, Russia and Kazakhstan, have GDP growth of around 4 per cent, while the German economy is stagnating and is now being burdened by high energy prices. However, this is also a consequence of the nonsensical sanctions policy of the traffic light government, from which the German economy is now suffering particularly badly.

Western investors have been taken into custody

It is also legally questionable that all Western investors in Russian shares, ADRs and funds have been taken into custody for two years since the start of the war in Ukraine, as this is effectively tantamount to expropriating Western investors. In this case, too, Western investors are being harmed more than Russian investors. The RTS index for Russian shares has already risen by 8.61 per cent in US dollars this year to 1165 index points. The RTS index was thus able to slightly outperform the DAX until 12 April, as the DAX had “only” gained 6.29 per cent to 17,930 index points by then.

In 1 year, the RTS index even rose by 19.5 per cent in USD terms, while the DAX “only” rose by 14.2 per cent in 1 year. But Western investors did not benefit from this, as they were not admitted to trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange due to the war-related sanctions and the Russian ADRs or funds are no longer tradable. The American Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) even rose by just 0.7 per cent to 37,983 index points by 12 April. Many stock exchanges in Eastern Europe also clearly outperformed both the DAX and the DJI once again, with shares from Serbia leading the way with the SRX index up 18 per cent since the beginning of the year. The SETX index for shares from South Eastern Europe has already risen by 11 per cent, far outperforming the DAX.

New opportunities in Kazakhstan and Georgia

A good alternative to Russian shares, which are no longer tradable for Western investors due to the sanctions, are now shares from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is also a very resource-rich country with high GDP growth rates of over 4 per cent, from which banks such as Halyk Bank or the fintech bank with high growth rates and low valuations are benefiting in particular, as is the Bank of Georgia in Georgia. Banks from Eastern Europe are performing particularly well at the moment.

Georgia grew by double-digit percentages in the two previous years and is now also an EU accession candidate that you should pay more attention to. The CECE Banking Index has already risen by 16 per cent since the beginning of the year. The KTX index for shares from Kazakhstan has also risen by 17.6 per cent since the beginning of the year, clearly outperforming the DAX.

Investors who would like to trade directly online in Kazakhstan should open an account with the broker Freedom Finance (Freedom Broker) from Cyprus at the following link:

However, investors can still buy Russian ADRs at discount prices in the OTC market via Freedom Broker. Similar opportunities are also available via the broker Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus, if you open an account via the following link: A list of tradable Russian ADR is published in the stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS ( Both brokers also offer participation in lucrative IPOs on Wall Street as well as high returns on overnight and fixed-term deposits.

Inform first, then invest

Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic states, south-eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with the respective share indices all up in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with 5 clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024, 10 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe outperformed again with a strong gain. It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.

Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by e-mail for just €15) to the monthly stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend special as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Share of the Month” and lucrative certificates at, under Stock Market Letter. The last EST was published on 27 March 2024.

Lecture note: Andreas Männicke will give a lecture on 26/27 April 2024 at the Freedom Broker stand 4C38 on the topic “New opportunities in Eastern Europe, especially in Kazakhstan”.

TV/radio notes: On 5 February 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Carola Ferstl on Money Talk about gold, commodities and the new opportunities in Eastern Europe. You can download all radio and TV interviews in the video archive at, including the last video in EastStockTV, episode 229. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?

If you are interested in new EastStock seminars “Go East” in Frankfurt/m or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team ( )

You can also subscribe to Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news on the world and eastern stock markets at .

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The stock exchanges of Central and Eastern Europe have been among the top performers among the world’s stock exchanges since 1998. In recent years in particular, many CEE stock exchanges have performed far better than the established Western stock exchanges. In 2019, for example, the Moscow Stock Exchange not only clearly outperformed the DAX and DJI, but also ranked among the 30 best-performing stock exchanges in the world.

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