First week in the red, whole year in the red!

Monday, 08. January 2024
  • Western stock markets fie, Eastern European stock markets hui –

There is a well-known stock market rule that says that if things go badly on the stock market in the first week of trading, a bear market is more likely to follow over the course of the year. If this is the case, investors should not necessarily invest in Western stock exchanges, but selectively in individual stock exchanges in Eastern Europe. The indices on Wall Street, the EuroStoxx 50 and the DAX were all down slightly in the first week of trading, but some stock exchanges in Eastern Europe, such as Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Romania, Bosnia and especially Kazakhstan, were up. Last year, many stock exchanges from Eastern Europe clearly outperformed the Western stock exchanges, with the Budapest and Warsaw stock exchanges leading the way with gains of over 40 per cent each in 2023. The CECE index, with Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic on board, achieved a gain of 35 per cent in 2023 and the SETX index for shares from South Eastern Europe and the Balkan region achieved a gain of almost 30 per cent.

The KTX index for shares from Kazakhstan even closed the first week of trading with a plus of 4 per cent, having already achieved a plus of 32 per cent last year. Risk-averse investors can buy Kazakhstani shares directly online via the broker Freedom Finance (Freedom Broker) from Cyprus if they open an account there beforehand, which is easy to do at the following link: . Although Russian ADR or original shares are still not tradable due to the sanctions, new opportunities may now arise again with some Russian ADR/GDR, which you can now buy at discount prices on the OTC market via the brokers Zerich Securities Ltd or Freedom Finance from Cyprus. Interesting stocks on the OTC market are above all the Russian discounter Fix Price, which has now also gone public on the stock exchange in Kazakhstan, and the IT stocks VKontakte and Yandex (more on this in the stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS ( However, you also need to open an account beforehand, which is easy to do at this link:

Andreas Männicke gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS ( and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 223 at

After the champagne mood came the hangover mood at the beginning of the year

The champagne mood at the end of the year was followed by a hangover mood on most of the world’s stock markets at the beginning of the year. A well-known stock market rule states that if the first week of trading ends in the red, the index will also be in the red at the end of the year. If this is the case, most western stock exchanges are in for a bad year. In contrast, the indices of some stock exchanges in Eastern Europe, which already outperformed last year, closed in positive territory again, such as the stock exchanges in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Romania, Bosnia and, above all, Kazakhstan.

Eastern European stock markets can outperform again

The stock markets in Eastern Europe were already able to impress with their clear outperformance last year. The CECE index, which includes Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, rose by 35 per cent in 2023, while the SETX index for shares from south-eastern Europe and the Balkan region gained almost 30 per cent. The Budapest Stock Exchange performed best last year, with the HTX index up 45 per cent. However, the HTX index also rose again in the first week of trading by 2.77 per cent to 5204 index points, while the DAX40 index closed down 1.04 per cent at 16,594 index points. However, the KTX index for shares from Kazakhstan performed even better, rising 4.04 per cent to 745 index points. The KTX index already performed impressively last year with a gain of 32 per cent in euro terms.

Investors who would like to trade directly online in Kazakhstan should open an account with the broker Freedom Finance (Freedom Broker) from Cyprus at the following link:

However, investors can still buy Russian ADRs at discount prices in the OTC market via Freedom Broker. Similar opportunities are also available via the broker Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus, if you open an account via the following link: A list of tradable Russian ADR is published in the stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS ( However, both brokers offer participation in lucrative IPOs on Wall Street.

2024 will be the year of major political and geopolitical challenges

The first week of trading on the western stock exchanges has already signalled that this year will be a very difficult year on the stock markets. It will be characterised by monetary, geopolitical and purely political events such as elections. After inflation rates rose again somewhat in December, yields on US government bonds also rose again at the start of the year, with yields on 10-year US government bonds already back above 4 per cent, which weighed on Wall Street at the beginning of the year. However, the US labour market data was again very robust and incoming orders in December were also satisfactory. However, the US budget will have to be passed again in February. The interest burden already doubled last year to USD 700bn. In February, the US Supreme Court will also decide whether Donald Trump will be allowed to run in the primaries. 2 states have already rejected this. If he is not admitted, there could be unrest in the USA.

Are we now getting “Weimar conditions” in Germany

But in Germany, too, the debt brake is still being debated, as are the measures to plug the 60 billion euro hole. We will have to wait and see what the general strike on 8 January will achieve. All parties in the coalition are in a low mood. There will be 4 federal elections this year, where there will be a further shift to the right. The so-called people’s parties are becoming weaker and weaker and the divisions are widening. Protest voters are becoming ever more numerous. In the summer there will be European elections, where the Wagenknecht party and the new Values Union party will run. This will cost the CDU/CSU votes, but also the SPD. We seem to be getting more and more Italian conditions, if not “Weimar conditions”, and we all know how that ended.

The EU and Germany must finally become sovereign

There is an urgent need for the EU and Germany to finally adopt an independent policy that is not so dependent on the USA. In the wars in Ukraine and Israel, the EU should take its own position as a peacemaker and not supply more and more weapons. The EU and Germany should also work to ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO, but remains neutral in order to accommodate Russia’s legitimate security interests. The war in Ukraine would have ended long ago in April 2022 if the West had not behaved in such a destructive and hostile manner. But a truly sovereign, independent stance by the EU and Germany will probably remain a pipe dream. Nevertheless, it is now high time to work towards a ceasefire at all levels, both in Ukraine and in Israel, as an escalation could lead to a third world war. Elections will also be held in Taiwan in January, which could exacerbate the US/China conflict depending on the outcome.

The price of crude oil has risen slightly by 3.8 per cent to USD 78.9 per barrel since the beginning of the year, but remains at risk of falling if the USA slips into a recession. Last year, the price of crude oil fell by 10 per cent. However, if the conflict with Israel escalates and Iran becomes more militarily involved, the oil price will temporarily rise sharply. Gold is currently trending sideways close to its old all-time high. Bitcoin continued to rise by almost 4 per cent to over USD 43,000/BTC, having already risen by 153 per cent last year, making it the best investment in the world. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is due to be approved on 15 January, which will ensure further demand for Bitcoin.

First inform, then invest

Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic states, south-eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with the respective share indices all up in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with 5 clearly outperforming the DAX. In the first week of trading, 6 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe outperformed again with a small gain. It is therefore still worth taking a look beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe after the war in Ukraine.

Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by e-mail for just €15) to the monthly stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend special as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Share of the Month” and lucrative certificates at, under Stock Market Letter. The last EST was published on 23 December 2023.

TV/radio notes: The last radio interview on Börsen Radio Networks was on 2 October 2023, but please also note the new interview by Marco Fröleke with Andreas Männicke on the new investment opportunities in Eastern Europe on his YouTube channel “Die Zeitenwende” from 28 September 2023. You can download all radio and TV interviews in the video archive at, including the last video in EastStockTV, episode 223. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?

If you are interested in new “Go East” seminars in Frankfurt/m or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team ( )

Subscribe now for free to the Andreas Männicke Newsletter to receive the full content by email.

Archive columns


EST Stock market letter

The stock exchanges of Central and Eastern Europe have been among the top performers among the world’s stock exchanges since 1998. In recent years in particular, many CEE stock exchanges have performed far better than the established Western stock exchanges. In 2019, for example, the Moscow Stock Exchange not only clearly outperformed the DAX and DJI, but also ranked among the 30 best-performing stock exchanges in the world.

Many investors have so far criminally neglected the CEE stock exchanges. Yet the selection of promising stocks is growing. Eastern Europe still has its future ahead of it.

Take advantage of your opportunities now!

  • analyses the most important trends on the CEE stock exchanges for you monthly on 30-60 pages.
  • looks not only at the established eastern stock exchanges, such as Moscow, Budapest, Prague and Warsaw, but also at the second-tier countries and the CIS republics
  • selects the most promising stocks for you from a fundamental and technical point of view and examines not only stocks but also other forms of investment such as funds, bonds, real estate, derivatives and certificates
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