World stock markets react calmly to increasing geopolitical dangers
24 February marked the anniversary of the Ukraine war and there is still no end in sight. On the contrary: by supplying more and more weapons, the war is dragging on and more and more people will inevitably die there. War is always a sign that politics has completely failed. But war is also always a crime against humanity – quite apart from the war crimes committed by both sides during the war. Russia started the war of aggression in violation of international law, but the West should ask itself whether it did enough in advance at all times to avoid the war and whether it also always took Russia’s security interests sufficiently into account.
China now made the first peace initiative and one can be curious about it, but it is viewed very sceptically by Western politicians. India and Brazil rebuffed Scholz. They also want dialogue and diplomatic negotiations. Wagenknecht/Schwarzer are calling for an end to arms deliveries and diplomatic negotiations in a petition and held their first peace demonstration in Berlin on 25 February. There is so far no exit strategy on either side in the Ukraine war. Both are counting on “total victory” and thus also on “total war”. However, this also increases the danger of an expansion to a third world war. The world stock markets have so far reacted very calmly to the increasing geopolitical dangers. There will soon be new opportunities again through IPOs and pre-IPOs offered through the brokers Freedom Broker and Zerich Securities.
But new opportunities are now also opening up on the stock exchanges of Eastern Europe. There are many undiscovered gems in Eastern Europe. The Prague Stock Exchange, for example, is one of the top performers in the world with a plus of over 20 percent and 8 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe are among the 30 best performing stock markets in the world.
Andreas Männicke also gives his assessments of the new opportunities in his stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 206 at www.YouTube.com.
Does the Ukraine conflict really have to be ended on the battlefield?
“Do you want total war?” was the serious question posed by the propaganda minister Goebels during the Second World War on 18 February 1943 in the Berlin Sportpalast, where thousands of people all shouted “yes” enthusiastically. This was preceded by the defeat of Stalingrad. At the time, this was the symbol of endurance madness, because Germany had effectively already lost the war.
Rand Corporation pleads for ceasefire
Many things in the Ukraine war are now reminiscent of this sentence when one hears some German and EU politicians, but also the Ukrainian President Selinskyi, who want to end the conflict on the battlefield at all costs. The Rand Corporation in the USA, a very influential think tank from the USA that advises the US government, comes to the conclusion that no one can win this war. The longer the war lasts, the more disadvantages the US has. Therefore, the Rand Corporation suggests that the US should push for a ceasefire, “freezing” the current front lines.
Authors Samuel Charap and Miranda Prieb believe that averting a possible escalation towards a Russia-NATO war and possible Russian nuclear deployment, as well as avoiding a protracted war, should be a higher priority for the US. Ex-US President Donald Trump is also likely to make the Ukraine war an election issue, which is already being hinted at in his new speeches. He thinks Biden is driving the world into a third world war. If he were president, the war would be over in a short time. But according to a new Forsa poll, 56 percent of the German population are also against further arms deliveries to Ukraine, and in East Germany even 71 percent.
USA (still) profits most from Ukraine war
The USA is still profiting the most from the Ukraine war through the leased weapons to Ukraine, through increased arms exports to Germany and through the delivery of expensive and environmentally harmful liquefied gas to Germany and the EU. But the war in Ukraine has already cost as much money in 1 year as the mission in Afghanistan did in 20 years, where the USA, in its hasty and uncoordinated withdrawal, thought only of itself and not of the German military or the German helpers in Afghanistan, which already foreshadows what would happen in a third world war.
Joe Biden wants to continue to support Ukraine and defend every NATO country
Joe Biden, on the other hand, affirmed during his visit to Kiev and Warsaw that he would defend every metre of NATO in the event of an attack on just one of the NATO countries. Most recently, the 9 Eastern European NATO countries met to discuss how they could better defend themselves together against an attack by Russia, of which they are all afraid. Joe Biden has now sent 20,000 more US troops to NATO’s eastern flank. The US arms industry is now expecting new orders worth USD 100 billion. Above all, ammunition is to be produced, because there is a shortage of it in Ukraine. Poland, along with Germany, provides the most military aid in Ukraine and is also opposed to Putin’s aggressive approach in Ukraine for historical reasons. Together with Germany, Poland has also taken in the most refugees from Ukraine. The number of refugees has increased to 14 million, with some already returning to the western part of Ukraine.
The Ukraine war has a long history
It is quite clear that Russia’s war of aggression, which is contrary to international law, must be condemned in every respect and cannot be excused with anything. Every war is a crime against humanity, not to mention the war crimes committed by both sides in the war. Nevertheless, the West must ask itself whether it did enough to avoid war at all times. Joe Biden did not respond in any way to Putin’s proposals regarding Ukraine and Russia’s security interests in December 2022, which, in the opinion of former Hamburg mayor Klaus von Dohnanyi, was Joe Biden’s biggest mistake and the real trigger of the war. Although Putin initially made irredeemable maximum demands, he was also prepared to compromise. He was very disappointed that Biden showed no willingness to talk.
The West is partly to blame and thus also partly responsible for the Ukraine war, because it could have been avoided. Many mistakes were made by the USA and the EU towards Russia and Putin. Putin is therefore very disappointed in the West because it had repeatedly tried to shape a future together through cooperation and trusting collaboration in an “economic area from Lisbon” to Vladivostok. In order to be able to correctly classify the Ukraine war, one has to know the long-standing geopolitical goals of the USA in detail.
Everything is going according to (the Brzezinski) plan in the USA
Already 30 years ago, the USA planned the integration of Poland and Ukraine into NATO and the EU in order to maintain and expand its supremacy in the world and to weaken Russia. All this can be read in detail in the book by the advisor to the US government Zbigniew Brzezinski “The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imparatives” (1997), which dealt with the geopolitical plan of how the USA could achieve dominance in the Eurasian region after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the process, Russia was to be gradually weakened by the entry of former Eastern bloc states into the EU and NATO. Russia is then to be broken up into individual parts later, with the USA gaining dominance. This is exactly what Putin is afraid of, because then Russia’s existence is indeed at stake.
The book was written in 1997 and its main features still have an effect today. Putin therefore already knew since 1997 what plan the USA was actually harbouring. Nevertheless, he initially relied on cooperation from 2000 to 2007. His speech in German in the German Bundestag in 2001, where he envisioned an economic area stretching from Vladivostok to Lisbon, remains unforgettable. But he also warned in his incendiary speech in 2007 at the Munich Security Conference against the expansion of NATO and also against the fact that Russian security interests were not being given enough attention.
Friedman (Strafor): an alliance of Germany and Russia is not in the American interest
However, another important puzzle in the geopolitical strategic plan to maintain and expand US supremacy was and is Germany. According to the ideas of US strategists, it was imperative to avoid Germany and Russia cooperating too closely. This US strategy is documented and recorded in the video with geostrategist and security expert George Friedman from the think tank Stratfor (short for Strategic Forcasting) from 2015, where Friedman made it clear in a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that a strong alliance between Germany and Russia was not in the American interest and that this must be prevented at all costs, as Germany together with Russia would be too strong a power. If you don’t know the YouTube video, you should definitely watch it. Here is the link to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcj8xN2UDKc .
US General Hodge handed out medals to Ukrainian soldiers
In the video you can also see that US General Ben Hodge handed out medals to Ukrainian soldiers in 2015, which is actually forbidden for the US. However, Hodge wanted to express that the Ukrainian army was actually his army and was fighting for his interests. Hodge was the commander-in-chief of the US land forces for the territory of Europe and the successor states of the Soviet Union, including Russia. This alone has a lot of symbolism but also speaks volumes as to who is really in charge of the Ukraine war, even today. The strings for the Ukraine war come together in Washington, with the military strategic measures being taken in Ramstein and Wiesbaden. Without British and US reconnaissance systems and without US weapons, the war would have ended long ago.
Gorbachev was deeply disappointed by the USA over the breach of trust.
So the war has a 30-year prehistory, which is often blanked out in Western media. The Ukraine war is a blueprint of what was hatched 30 years ago in think tanks in the USA and is still being pursued now. Poland and Ukraine were, according to the strategic plan, the most important pieces in the jigsaw puzzle to retain US world domination and expand its dominance in the Eurasian space. NATO’s eastward expansion was against the agreements of the responsible foreign ministers at the time, such as Genscher, at the time of reunification in 1990, although this was not put in writing. Without Russia’s consent, German unification would not have been possible. Russia voluntarily withdrew its military from East Germany and East Berlin, for which we should be grateful to Russia after today. For that was not a matter of course.
During his lifetime, ex-President Gorbachev also repeatedly criticised the actions of the USA and NATO. There he was in complete agreement with Putin. Gorbachev was disappointed about the breach of trust, which he expressed in many interviews. But ex-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was also very critical of NATO’s eastward expansion. The late former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt spoke of “quite a lot of nonsense and geopolitical childishness” if Ukraine and Georgia are to be admitted to the EU and NATO, and possibly Armenia as well. For Putin, membership in the EU is not as important as Ukraine’s admission to NATO for security reasons. Ukraine, like Belarus, should be a neutral bloc. Already the NATO missiles on Romanian and Polish soil were a thorn in Putin’s side and posed a threat.
Violent coup led to change of power with the participation of Nazis
Moreover, mach should not forget and analyse exactly how the change of power in 2014 came about. According to the Russian interpretation, it was an unlawful, unconstitutional coup d’état, in which 100 people died at the hands of unknown snipers and a change of power was finally brought about by violence by a masked mob. The then President Viktor Yanukovych had to flee to Russia by helicopter in a night and fog operation under threat of violence because it was too dangerous for him to stay. Two days before the flight, a plan was worked out in Normandy talks together with the former Foreign Minister Steinmeyer on how to proceed in Ukraine. According to this plan, new elections were to take place in October 2014. However, Yanukovych was to remain in office until then.
In the transitional government, 4 important ministerial posts, including the Ministry of the Interior, were filled with members of the Svoboda party, i.e. with Nazis, which was a scandal. The EU allowed this to happen and simply stood by and did nothing, which was an absurdity and a serious political mistake. Already at the time of the EU Association Agreement, it was agreed that there would be military support from the EU without discussing this with Putin. It was clear that such a treaty was not acceptable to Yanukovych at the time without discussing it with Putin. At that time, Ukraine’s main trade was still with its most important partner, Russia, and there was a customs agreement with Russia. All this should have been discussed with Putin on an equal footing, but the EU did not do this. Yanukovych therefore also rejected the draft agreement. Only then did the Maidan demonstrations begin. They began peacefully, but ended violently.
The Maidan demonstrations and the coup were allegedly supported with USD 5 billion by George Soros. US Senator Jon McCain was one of the first on the stage of the Maidan demonstrations, not Angela Merkel. He supported not only the later prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, but also the leader of the radical right-wing party Svoboda Oleh Tyahnybok.
USA was very influential in the elections of the new government in Ukraine
When filling the first ministerial posts, the USA placed a lot of emphasis on having its candidates there like the first prime minister Areseniy Yatsenyuk, who, however, already announced his resignation in 2015. However, the voting out of Yanukovych and the election of Yatsenyuk was not constitutional, as only 72 percent voted for the voting out, which was not the required majority of 75 percent. Then there can be the time of the chocolate oligarch Poroshenko, where actually according to the Minsk Process 1 and 2 it was agreed that Eastern Ukraine would get a special status as an autonomous region. However, the constitution was never amended in this regard and no direct talks with separatist leaders have ever been initiated since 2014. Putin repeatedly complains that Ukraine refuses to implement the Minsk process. However, the separatist leaders are mostly not from the Donbas region, but from Russia with links to the GRU military intelligence service. From the Kremlin’s point of view, the Dobnass region is nevertheless a case of legitimate resistance against a “fascist regime”.
The EU and Germany exert too little pressure on the Ukrainian government
Germany also did too little to help implement the Minsk process between 2015 and 2022. For example, loans should have been given to Ukraine with the condition that the Minsk peace process be implemented. The IFW also gave loans without conditions in this regard. Without the IMF loans, Ukraine would have been bankrupt long ago. Angel Merkel now says, after her term in office, that the Minsk process was only done to give Ukraine time to recover and rearm militarily. In fact, Ukraine has been massively rearmed by the US since 2015. NATO manoeuvres have also taken place in Ukraine.
What is there to Putin’s genocide talk?
In addition, however, Ukrainian artillery has been constantly shelling objects in the Donbass region since 2015 until 2022. The ceasefire was repeatedly broken on both sides and 14,000 people were killed, but this was also because the Ukrainian military sometimes acted very aggressively. Putin even spoke of genocide. In fact, according to the OSCE, more people died in Ukraine’s anti-terrorist operation among the separatists than the soldiers in western Ukraine. The reason is that Ukraine used heavy artillery, while there were more snipers in eastern Ukraine. However, this also resulted in more civilian deaths among the separatists.
In the proxy war between the USA and Russia in Ukraine, peace efforts are being blocked by the USA.
Ukraine and the West kept denying this, but Western media paid too little attention to this issue during this time and did not do any interviews vot there with the people in Eastern Ukraine, but also not with the separatist leaders…. Allegedly, the Azov battalion, where there were obviously many Nazis among the young mercenaries, was the spearhead in the shelling of Donetsk and Luhansk. The shelling intensified just before the war began on 22 February 2022, after which Putin then launched his “special military operation” against Ukraine with the overly broad aim of “demilitarising and denazifying” Ukraine. This war aim is too broad. In reality, however, it is also a proxy war between the USA and Russia, with the strings being pulled in the USA. So it was not surprising that Joe Biden immediately called China’s peace plan “irrational”.
At the same time, Russia and Ukraine had already come very close to each other during the negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022, which Israeli ex-premier Benett can also confirm. However, he holds the USA and Great Britain primarily responsible for the fact that no agreement was reached. The British Prime Minister at the time, Johnson, even flew to Kiev to convince Selinskyi that one cannot negotiate with a war criminal like Putin and that the West is not yet ready for peace. Afterwards, there was the massacre in Buchma, for which Russia was held responsible, and then the negotiations in Istanbul were abruptly broken off. But they were very close to at least a ceasefire in April 2022.
An agreement, obstructed and blocked by the West and also by Selinskyi’s 180-degree turn, could have saved the lives of many people. Under the proposals at the time, Ukraine would have agreed not to become a NATO member, but Minsk II would then have been implemented and the Donbas region would have continued to belong to Ukraine, but Crimea to Russia. That would have been a viable solution. Unfortunately, this did not come about due to the veto of the USA and the UK. Now, with Russia’s annexation of four territories in eastern Ukraine, such a solution is no longer conceivable.
Putin blames the West for the war
During Putin’s speech in Moscow, he blamed the West alone for the war. In the one-hour speech, Putin now cancelled the “New Start” nuclear weapons treaty with the USA, which limited the nuclear arsenal in Russia and in Russia. which could result in a new wave of rearmament. In this way, the ex-US president Reagan already tried at that time to make the Soviet Union collapse, because the costs of constant rearmament were becoming too high. Eventually this succeeded in 1990.
Putin thus portrayed the Ukraine war as a defensive war of Russia and in doing so – also through the one-sided propaganda – finds many supporters in Russia. Certainly, from Putin’s point of view, it is already a war of Russia against the West and here above all against the USA, which was necessary to defend Russian values and virtues. Moreover, he thinks it was a necessary pre-emptive strike because otherwise Ukraine would have attacked the Donbas. In fact, the bombardment of the Donbas had been stepped up a day or two before the war, but Putin has so far provided no evidence that this large-scale attack was allegedly planned by the Ukrainian side. However, Selinskyi decided in a decree 1 year before the war that Ukraine would militarily retake the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. In doing so, however, he also unilaterally nullified the Minsk process.
So far, there is also no evidence of the approximately 50 bioweapons laboratories in Ukraine, which allegedly not only the Pentagon knew about, but was also imitated by it. Allegedly, completely different viruses are to be used artificially in the future to destroy human lives en masse. Russia does not want to present this evidence of the existence of US bioweapons laboratories on Ukrainian soil until after the war.
Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, is also said to have played a not entirely inglorious role in funding the bioweapons labs. Three months after the Maidan demonstrations and the change of power, Hunter Biden was employed as a consultant for USD 50,000 per month in the gas company Burisma, which was not entirely insignificant for Ukraine, but later came under suspicion of corruption. The father, Joe Biden, arranged for the then Ukrainian attorney general not to bring charges against Burisma. This even became an election campaign issue with Trump. Trump himself came under pressure at the time for allegedly abusing his power and pressuring the Ukrainian president to clear up the Hunter Biden case. This even led to impeachment proceedings against Trump. In principle, however, Trump was right. Joe Biden was already the most important US politician under US President Obama for Ukraine in 2014/15, and even then not everything was above board. Obama called Russia only a regional power, which meant further humiliation for Putin.
Putin also wants to use nuclear weapons as a last resort
However, Putin once again let it be known that Russia is prepared to use nuclear weapons as a last resort if Russia’s existence is threatened. This again leaves much room for interpretation as to when this point of real existential threat is reached. If Putin were to lose the war in Ukraine, this could mean the political end for Putin. The head of the Russian Security Council, Medvedev, who likes to threaten with nuclear bombs, also says that in the event of defeat Russia would implode internally and disintegrate into separate parts, which is also what the USA wants. In reality, Russia is very fragile and it is an art to hold Russia together, which Putin has managed to do so far. Putin also sees this danger and therefore wants to avoid it at all costs. The ex-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned against a disintegration of Russia, because then you never know into which hands the nuclear bombs will end up.
Many soldiers die on both sides
There is a stalemate in the war at the moment. Both sides are now expecting a major attack in the spring. Hundreds of people are dying on the front lines every day. It is not yet clear how many people in total have already died in the Ukraine war. At the beginning of the war, as is well known, the truth ends and propaganda takes over on both sides. The Israeli secret service, which is usually very well informed, has given figures: According to it, there are so far 157,000 and 234,000 wounded on the Ukrainian side but only 18,000 dead and 54,000 wounded on the Russian side. In addition, there are allegedly 5,300 mercenaries who have died and – get this – 2,500 NATO soldiers. The Russian side has so far stated that there were 15,000 Russian soldiers. The Norwegian secret service, however, assumes 200,000 dead on the Russian side. According to EU President Ursula von der Leyen, 100,000 soldiers and 20,000 civilians have died on the Ukrainian side in Ukraine so far.
Partial mobilisation not in the interest of all Russians
It is indisputable that Russia is superior both in the number of soldiers and tanks. Since September 2022, Putin ordered partial mobilisation, which caused many young Russians to leave Russia for good. Since September 2022, there has also been a change in thinking, at least among those families affected by the partial mobilisation. From 300,000 soldiers, more than 500,000 young people have now been drafted and trained in arms in further steps. However, this brings very inexperienced young soldiers to the front, which weakens the fighting force.
Wagner Group complains about lack of support in the battle for Bachmut
But the dreaded non-governmental organisation Wagner Group, under the high command of the entrepreneur Yevgeny Viktorovisth Prigozhin, has also suffered considerable losses. Prigozhin is a Russian entrepreneur. In addition to his catering company Konkord, he runs the only private restaurant in the building of the Russian parliament; his economic success is associated with the protection of President Putin There are now over hundreds of soldiers dying daily in the “Battle of Bachmut.” Here the Wagner Group chief Prigozhin is now complaining that he is not being adequately supported with ammunition and airlift. This, he says, is treason. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valerie Gerasimov contradicted this insinuation, saying that this only contributed to division and served the enemy. Obviously, however, there are coordination problems between the Russian military and the Wagner group at the front. Both in the massacre at Buchma and in other war crimes such as mistreatment and rape, the mercenaries of the Wagner Group are said to have been significantly involved, but this has yet to be clarified and proven. Incidentally, there are war crimes on both sides and not only on the Russian side, as manifold video material can prove.
The Wagner Group, which is a private company based in Argentina, has been used several times by the Russian side in wars such as in Syria, in Asia and in Africa (also in Mali) to defend Russian interests there. The mercenaries are often recruited from prisons. Very many mercenaries come from Chechnya. Those who serve on the front in Ukraine for 6 months not only get 1300 € per month, but also immunity from prosecution after 6 months. If he dies, the family is supported with 50 million roubles. Normally, private paramilitary units are banned in Russia, but an exception has been made for the Wagner Group. They are directly subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defence. There are 37,500 mercenaries, of which 11,500 are from prison.
Are there still Nazis in Ukraine?
The equivalent in Ukraine is the Azov Battalion, financed by the oligarch Igor Kolomojskyj, but subordinated to the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior. Kolomojskyj is a Russophobe. HE is also the foster father who turned Selinskyi from actor to president. Now one gets the impression that Selinskyi is also a very good actor as president! According to the Panama Papers, he is now also very wealthy and thus also very corrupt like so many politicians in Ukraine. Selinskyi himself is a Jew, as is Kolomoyskyi, who lives in Geneva and Israel.
The Azov battalion, which consists of more than 20,000 mercenaries, is also said to be Nazis who worship Stepan Bandera and who often openly display their Nazi symbols with swastikas tattooed on them and Hitler salutes. Stepan Bandera was Ukrainian, but he cooperated with the German Wehrmacht in World War II and was responsible for mass shootings in Lviv. The Western media and the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior probably didn’t look too closely at the Azov battalion. The main thing is that they are fighting successfully against the “evil enemy” Russia. The Western media also like to look the other way or not so closely. But there are also mercenaries from all over the world, even from Germany, who want to support Ukraine in its defensive war. They have the same status as the Ukrainian military.
Number of soldiers and logistics could decide the war in the end
Just like the ammunition available, the size of the troops will in the long run determine who will win the war. Of course, the morale of the troops also plays a role and that seems to be much better on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian. Hardly anyone expected that the Ukrainians would be able to hold out for so long to defend Ukraine. Nevertheless, one may ask whether it is sensible and purposeful to supply Ukraine with more and more heavy offensive weapons now.
Selinskyi now vehemently demands fighter jets
In addition to tanks, Selinskyi now vehemently demanded fighter jets on his “European tour”, and Great Britain seems to be the first nation to already train Ukrainian pilots. This means that several “red lines” are now being crossed at the same time, which is very dangerous because further escalations can lead directly to a 3rd world war. One gets more and more the impression that this is also the goal of Selinskyi, who is now offered a stage everywhere, where he is also celebrated frenetically as a hero. He has also been calling for a no-fly zone for a long time, just like his deputy foreign minister Melnyk, but in this he has held the danger of direct confrontation with NATO. If the war were to spread to NATO, however, that would mean World War 3. Ukraine now even wants cluster bombs and phosphorus bombs because this is what Russia has allegedly also used. This was also demanded at the Munich Security Conference. Where does the list of demands end, then, please? According to the World, the war in Ukraine has so far cost 1.6 trillion euros. For the USA, it has already been more costly in 1 year than the 20-year mission in Afghanistan.
Are we on the slippery slope to World War 3?
Since these dangers of escalation are real and thus the danger of a 3rd world war is also real, the peace initiative by China, which has now presented a 12-point plan to end the Ukraine war, is also to be welcomed. However, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, accuses China of having information that China is sending weapons to Russia, thus abandoning their hitherto militarily neutral position. He probably got this information from the CIA, but what to make of the veracity of CIA information was seen in the Iraq war, where there were supposedly weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which later turned out to be a lie. Incidentally, far more people, including more civilians, died in Iraq as a result of a war waged by the USA in violation of international law than in Ukraine. But where are the sanctions against the USA on the part of the EU? With one day’s delay, the 10th sanctions package against Russia for goods worth 11 billion euros has now been launched. These are goods that are also needed as weapons or for weapons production.
Did the USA blow up the Northern Pipeline?
Incidentally, the US secret service also plays a very important and prominent, but not always beneficial, role in the Ukraine war. James Bond, that is, British intelligence is also fully involved. US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh blamed the US, together with Norway, for the Nordic Pipeline terrorist attack. But he also thinks that it was a big mistake for the US to want to admit Ukraine, one of the most corrupt nations in the world, into NATO just to hurt Russia. The USA already wanted to admit Ukraine to NATO in Bucharest in 2008, which was fortunately rejected by Germany at the time for good reasons.
Many politicians are now desperate for a Ukrainian victory
Ukrainian President Selinskyi and also Kiev Mayor Klitschko are obviously convinced of a Ukrainian victory. They want not only to chase Russia to the Russian border, but also to take Crimea. It should be clear that this can only succeed, if at all, with fighter jets and medium-range missiles. A further stage of escalation would already be possible if Ukraine actually managed to oust the Russians with the help of new weapons, which, however, has already happened in Kharkiv.
The politicians’ choice of words makes the subtle difference clear: while the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is convinced that Putin must not win this war or Ukraine must not lose it, the new Defence Minister Boris Pistorius goes further and says unequivocally: Ukraine must win this war! Foreign Minister Bearbock expressed similar views, as did most politicians from the Greens, the Liberals – especially arms lobbyist Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann – and also from the CDU, such as CDU leader Merz. At the moment, all of them consider the delivery of heavy weapons to be the only feasible way forward, which, in retrospect, could also be a mistake. But one thing is now clear: a defensive war is to be turned into a war of aggression without regard for the loss of human life.
Wagenknecht/Schwarzer and Todenhöfer call for ceasefire, diplomatic negotiations and peace
Many people should now join Wagenknecht/Schwarzer’s petition and call for a ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations with the politician. This was also affirmed at the demonstration on 25 February at the Brandenburg Gate. Similarly, the journalist Jürgen Todenhöfer, who has been “on the ground” in almost every war zone in the world, is also demanding an immediate end to arms deliveries. The constant delivery of new heavy offensive weapons will only prolong the war unnecessarily. US Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs also sees the danger of a nuclear war between the two great powers. He also developed a guide for mediators to peace in Ukraine. Allegedly, US President Joe Biden, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, signalled willingness to talk to Putin at a press conference in December 2022, if Putin presented a realistic and also for Ukraine sustainable plan on how to reach peace.
However, US General and Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark A. Milley also advocates a negotiated political solution to the conflict, because he considers the chances of a military victory for Ukraine to be not very high. There are four key issues to be resolved: Ukraine’s sovereignty and security; the question of NATO’s eastward expansion for Ukraine/Georgia; the fate of Crimea; and the future of the Donbas. Possible mediators for the peace plan, besides China, Turkey and Pope Francis, could be above all the United Nations (UN), which has not yet presented a concrete peace plan. The last UN resolution, which the German Foreign Minister Bearbock also supported, was pointless and did not achieve much. The peace initiatives mentioned above should be further supported and intensified before everything gets out of hand.
China’s new 12-point peace initiative still too vague and imprecise
In principle, we should also support China’s 12-point peace plan, which goes in the same direction. China partly opposed Russia by formulating point one as follows: “The territorial integrity of all countries must be respected. In a historical reference, however, Russia regards at least the now annexed Donbas region as Russian territory. According to Putin, Russia is only taking back what belongs to Russia. These claims are not to be agreed with, as otherwise all borders would be negotiable. The other points of the 12-point plan are very general. Numerous goals of the Chinese government are only pious wishes such as “cessation of hostilities” or “end of unilateral sanctions” are formulated in vague terms. Even the sentence “dialogue and negotiations are the only feasible solution to the Ukraine crisis” is not a peace plan but a pious wish. The devil is in the detail. NATO chief Stoltenberg thinks the peace plan is not very credible. Meanwhile, he calls on China to persuade Russia to end the war.
China also wants to support Belarus
China, however, now also wants to support Belarus in its struggle to defend itself against external forces. This could mean not only Western countries, but also Russia, which allegedly wants to annex Belarus by the end of 2023. The Russian Foreign Ministry has welcomed Beijing’s peace initiative and is willing to talk on the basis of it. Scholz and Bearbock expressed scepticism. However, the decisions are made in Washington and here the peace plan meets with rejection. The Americans want to retain and consolidate their strategic influence over Ukraine, which such a peace plan could counteract. Washington obviously plays a bigger role in the Ukraine war than the EU.
Russia’s demands still go too far
Russia, however, demands an end to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, the cessation of all hostilities and Ukraine’s return to a neutral, non-aligned status. In addition, the “new territorial realities” – i.e. the annexation of several Ukrainian territories by Russia in violation of international law – would have to be recognised. Russia, however, wants to continue to pursue the originally stated war goal such as the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine, which is too far-reaching. Thus, a compromise will never be reached.
China and India abstain on new UN resolution
The UN resolution of 23 February called by a majority for a ceasefire and for Russia to withdraw from the combat zones in Ukraine. The resolution was endorsed by 141 countries out of over 190. 6 voted against and the rest abstained, including again China and India. The Ukraine war has now cemented a world order: G7 versus BRICS. This brings new opportunities and risks.
World stock markets (still) unimpressed by increasing geopolitical dangers
The world stock markets are currently viewing the possible escalation in the Ukraine war, but also the restrictive monetary policy of the central banks, as a non-event and are also currently focusing more on corporate results and economic data. The world stock exchanges had one of the best stock market starts in decades in January/February, which brought the DAX a plus of more than 10 per cent at its peak, even if the DAX corrected by almost 2 per cent to 12,230 index points on Friday due to interest rate fears. Despite the Ukraine war, the opportunities in Eastern Europe (excluding Russia) continue to be particularly great. 8 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock exchanges in the world in February. Cryptocurrencies were also in demand again after the price crash last year, with Bitcoin rising by over 40 percent. Gold/silver, on the other hand, fell due to rising interest rates.
New opportunities with pre-IPOs and IPOs in the USA
The good mood on the stock market could change as soon as the central banks go too far or the Ukraine war escalates further and NATO becomes more involved in the war, which could lead to a third world war. China’s military involvement with arms deliveries to Russia would also be a sell signal. On the other hand, after the good start on the stock market, new IPO opportunities and pre-IPO opportunities are opening up again in the USA if the mood on the stock market remains good.
If you want to participate in the pre-IPO of ConsenSys – a software company from the blockchain sector – for example, you first have to open an account with Zerich Securities Ltd. or the Mind Money portal, which is very easy to do at https://trade.mind-money.eu, or you can send an e-mail to: firstname.lastname@example.org. Via this Mind Money portal you can also buy Gazprom bonds over the counter at a price of around 70, which could be a very lucrative business. The prerequisite for this in each case is the opening of an account and the conclusion of a portfolio management contract with Zerich Securities Ltd.
Participation in IPOs in the USA possible with Freedom Broker
Not only pre-IPOs are interesting, but also participation in IPOs in the USA. This is not only possible with Zerich Securities Ltd, but also with Freedom Broker. Here, too, excellent returns could be achieved in 2021. This could be repeated this year. In addition, one gets 3 percent interest on the USD account for free liquidity and 2.5 percent for a Euro account. But also those who have questions about the Russian ADR are in good hands with Freedom Broker. Customers of Freedom Broker have also already received the quite respectable dividends from Gazprom and LUKoil. More dividends will follow. Here, too, it is worth opening an account at https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 .
Inform first, then invest
But there are also new opportunities in Eastern Europe, where there are always outperformance chances. Inform yourself now in detail about the background and the development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis but also about the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltics, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Ukraine.
Review: In 2018, 10 stock markets from Eastern Europe were among the best performing stock markets in the world, all clearly outperforming the DAX and also the US stock market. The Moscow Stock Exchange was the clear outperformer among all world stock markets in 2019, with a gain of over 46 per cent in euro terms. However, the Bucharest Stock Exchange (Romania) also rose by over 32 per cent in 2019. The stock markets in South-Eastern Europe and also in the Baltic countries remained very stable on the plus side (Croatia +13 per cent). In 2020, 6 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best performing stock markets in the world and last year even 11 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe. In 2021, shares in Kazakhstan rose by more than 80 per cent. Last year, 5 Eastern European stock exchanges, mainly from the Balkans, clearly outperformed the DAX, and this year there are already 8 Eastern European stock exchanges that have outperformed the DAX. The CTX index for shares from the Czech Republic has already risen by 20 percent this year. So even after the Ukraine war, it is still worthwhile to look beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order now a trial subscription (3 issues by e-mail for only 15 €) of the monthly stock letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend/bond special as well as with a lot of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Stock of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, there under Stock Letter. The next EST will be published in March 2023.
TV/radio notes: The last radio interview was on 12 November 2022 and before that on 31 October on Börsen Radio Networks. The next one is in early March on Börsen Radio Networks. Also watch the latest EastStockTV video on YouTube about the Ukraine war and the new outperformance opportunities in Eastern European stock markets. Every 14 days Mr. Männicke is also on YouTube at, “Finanzstammtisch” of Capital-Manager.com, last on 10 January 2023. You can download the interviews and videos at www.eaststock.de, there under the heading “Interviews” as well as the videos of EastStockTV. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?